Mumbai: SBI Research, in a report, has estimated Indiaâs GDP growth to be 6.3 percent in 2024-2025, assuming that the National Statistical Office (NSO) does not make major revisions to the earlier first and second quarter estimates.
SBIâs estimate is 10 basis points (bps) lower than the NSOâs forecast of 6.4 percent growth for the current fiscal year.
The report stated that leveraging 36 high-frequency indicators, the estimated GDP growth for the third quarter of the current financial year should be between 6.2 percent and 6.3 percent.
âDespite upheavals in global geopolitics, and trade/supply chains being susceptible to winds of re-globalization, the Indian economy has been leaning against the winds,â said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, SBI.
The slowdown in current household inflation expectations encourages higher discretionary spending and drives demand-led growth, the report noted.
The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 74 percent in Q3 FY25 from 71 percent in Q2 FY25. Continuing the momentum, a healthy rural economy is further reinforcing stability and sustaining momentum in other sectors. This is evident as rural agriculture wage growth remains consistent, domestic tractor sales have picked up, and rabi crop sowing has gained momentum.
Capex is showing improvement in Q3 FY25, with the majority of the statesâ capex as a percentage of the Budget Estimate (BE) being lower in FY25 to date but embracing momentum in Q3 FY25, which augurs well for future developments.
IIP manufacturing growth has improved from 3.3 percent in Q2 FY25 to 4.3 percent in Q3 FY25, and the SBI Index is also showing positive momentum in Q3.
Around 4,000 corporates in the listed space reported revenue growth of 6.2 percent, while EBITDA and profit after tax (PAT) grew by approximately 11 percent and 12 percent, respectively, in Q3 FY25 compared to Q3 FY24.
